Croatia's midfield control, anchored by their possession-heavy buildup, makes them clear favorites at 53%, with the model's 1.54 expected goals reflecting superior chance creation against a Ghana side that has scored just 0.46 per game. However, Ghana's defensive resilience—two consecutive clean sheets—explains the tight 1-1 projected scoreline and the elevated 29% draw probability, suggesting Croatia may struggle to break down a compact, disciplined block. The decisive factor is finishing quality: if Croatia converts their territorial dominance, they win comfortably, but Ghana's stinginess keeps an upset draw firmly in play.