Belgium's defensive solidity—a 0.46 goals-conceded average with clean sheets in half their recent outings—stands in stark contrast to New Zealand's leaky backline, which has shipped 2.54 per game. That gap in defensive discipline is the decisive driver here, and with the bookmakers aligning tightly at 82% for a Belgian win, the model's 78% reflects genuine consensus rather than an outlier read. The likeliest path is a controlled 0-2 in Belgium's favor, though New Zealand's modest attacking output keeps a slim back-door scoring chance alive.