The Netherlands enter as overwhelming favorites, and the underlying numbers leave little room for ambiguity: their attack has been clinical at 3.63 goals per game, while Tunisia's alarming defensive collapse—conceding 4.45 per match—exposes the decisive mismatch. The model's 2.89 expected goals for the Dutch reflects a side capable of dismantling fragile back lines, and Tunisia's near-total scoring drought (0.45 per game) offers no counterweight. Expect Netherlands to control tempo and convert their territorial dominance, with the projected 0-2 scoreline hinging entirely on Tunisia's inability to keep pace defensively.