Germany's prolific attacking output (4.27 goals per game) is the decisive edge here, overwhelming an Ecuadorian side that has failed to score in its recent fixtures despite maintaining defensive solidity. The model's 0-2 projection reflects this asymmetry: Ecuador's organized backline may contain the damage, but a toothless attack offers little path to points against Germany's firepower. With model and market in near-perfect alignment at 59-60%, the German advantage is well-supported rather than speculative.